While some have been skeptical of Nintendo’s chances with the Switch console, DFC Intelligence is a believer. Today, the research firm issued its forecast for the Switch through 2020, which predicts that Nintendo will manage to shift 40 million units, which would represent almost three times as many units as the Wii U sold in its first four years. DFC acknowledges that initial hardware allocations and a slim launch lineup will limit the system in the beginning but “demand is expected to be strong and the major issue will be whether the system can attract a broad audience starting in the holiday sales season of 2017.”
DFC Intelligence head David Cole commented, “The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo’s poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.”
Beating the Wii U’s sales total is a very low bar, but whether Switch can sell significantly more than the failed console remains to be seen. The big challenge for Nintendo, as Rob Fahey points out today in his column, will not be competing with Sony and Microsoft, but rather to convince consumers that it’s worth spending the money to own the Switch as a second console. Super Mario Odyssey’s arrival next holiday season could go a long way towards boosting the system’s adoption.